Dr. Denis Worrall helps to make sense of this strangerer world

This article reminds me about my civic responsibility to be well informed.  Without a well informed public discourse we are but poor players that strut and fret our hour upon the stage, and then are heard no more. It becomes a tale told by idiots, full of sound and fury, Signifying NOTHING! (with apologies to the Bard)

 

Understanding This Very Strange Society

-  with apologies to Lawrence Durrell, 1968

29 March 2012

Over dinner this week an old friend said that he had bought a property in Mauritius.  Why? “Because this place is going to blow up.”  This place – South Africa – is not going to blow up.  But I understand where my friends’ attitude comes from.  And if he as a South African is puzzled to the point of being concerned by the political goings on in our society, I wonder what foreigners must make of our country – whether seriously involved in a deal or ordinary folk who are here not to invest but just to enjoy these lovely late Autumn days looking – in vain I’m afraid – for whales in Hermanus. 

Most people get their information from television or from newspapers, and South Africa, by any comparison, has the best print media in Africa.  It’s Sunday newspapers – and there are five substantial ones – are probably unique in the world in the political role which they play.  In fact, to keep abreast of developments during the course of the week, you just have to read the Sunday newspapers.

Tertius Myburgh, a now deceased but much-loved and first-rate editor of The Sunday Times, said of his paper – its unique magic was to bring together sex, scandal, business and politics.  The Sunday Times’ competition in those days was The Sunday Express and The Sunday Tribune.  The Sunday Tribune survives, but added to it are The Independent on Sunday, City Press, and the Afrikaans newspaper Rapport, which is co-owned with The City Press by the giant publishing company Media24.  And one can include in this collection the weekly Mail & Guardian which reaches most readers late on a Friday or over the weekend.  But come Sunday, they all tell their own story – as they genuinely see it and as their columnists genuinely interpret it.  I add this positive qualification - because the reality is a confused and conflicting one, and – most of the time – disconcerting to ordinary South Africans. 

For example, over the weekend of the 11^th of March, The Independent published an article under the heading “Our democracy hangs in the balance”, with a sub-heading “Our President is betraying his party’s legacy by turning on the constitution.” The article is written by none other than Dr Mamphela Ramphele, a former Vice-Chancellor of the University of Cape Town and World Bank executive.  In other words, a highly respected person with impeccable credentials to comment on the South African situation.  Among other things she wrote “The past few weeks have witnessed an arising crescendo of rhetoric that places our failures as a nation to transform the socio-economic inequities of our society on the doorstep of our national constitution”  She goes on to warn “The principle of the rule of law is a critical building block in the pursuit of the concept of constitutionalism, and a more sinister driver behind the betrayal of the spiritual values of our constitutional democracy is to shift the blame for poor performance.”  She warns South Africans “We must be very afraid as citizens when scapegoats are used to mask government failures.  We need not look far for examples of the tragic results of such scapegoating.” 

This is potent stuff coming from a highly reputable person.  Yet on the same Sunday (11 March) but in a different newspaper, Cyril Ramaphosa, an independent businessman but probably one of the most respected and influential members of the ANC outside of the cabinet, and commanding as much respect as Ramphele, contributed an article in City Press under the heading: “Alarmist headlines bode ill for logical and rational debate.”  Ramaphosa was critical of an article City Press had carried in an earlier edition under the heading “ANC wants a new constitution.”  Ramaphosa described this “as the latest instalment of this fear-inspiring approach” He went on to say that “the use of fear and ignorance as political weapons is not new to South Africa.  It is part of a concerted effort to suspend reason and evoke fear.  It is part of a narrative that suggests that the ANC would like nothing better to reverse the country’s democratic gains, erode constitutional freedoms and undermine the independence of the judiciary.  Not only are these assertions untrue, they also diminish the opportunity for rational discussion about the challenges facing our country.” 

Here are two points of view, both well-articulated and published in good faith, but conveying very different messages.  It is clear which of the two views has influenced my good friend with the property in Mauritius. 

This is just one example.  Another is an interview, which ANC Treasurer-General Mathews Phosa gave to The Sunday Times last weekend (25 March).  It was on the front-page, and therefore prominent, and under the headline: “Phosa warns of Arab Spring in South Africa”.  The report goes on to say: “Phosa warned of a North-African style Arab Spring if the government does not affectively tackle rising unemployment among the youth.  “What happened in North Africa was that there were too many unemployed young people.  If we don’t draw lessons from there, we are making a big mistake.” 

Admittedly, Phosa’s interview was given against the background of on-going service delivery protests in many parts of the country.  But the point is, here is a person of substantial influence within the ANC, one of its top leaders, in effect expressing a lack of confidence in his organisation, which effectively is the government of South Africa.  How utterly confusing to ordinary South Africans!.

Yet another example is Zwelinzima Vavi, head of the powerful Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU), a partner in the South African government alliance, quoted under the headline “Vavi says ANC risks being overthrown.”  His message: “Unless the government does better, it will be overthrown.” 

No doubt there are people who will welcome the expression of such sentiments because they believe the government is failing.  But the element of confusion and discord is distinctly worrying to many people and certainly to foreign investors.  We’ve seen this in relation to the mining industry.  Is there an answer? 

It may be the wrong time to raise this question because we are also into an election year.  And it is a rather unique election – because while until now the ANC has avoided direct competition, this time it seems there will be a real fight to see who will be the ANC candidate.  So it may be the wrong time to talk about serious answers to our situation.

Insight has at different times referred to the argument over the role of the judiciary and the concept of separation of powers and the government’s challenge to the right of information and the right of expression, and the deeply worrying debate over the role of the judiciary relative to the other branches of government.  These issues raise two points. 

Firstly, while as a country we have adopted the constitutional model most prominently represented among democracies by the US, we don’t have America’s philosophical underpinnings – the Federalist papers, the writings of Madison, Hamilton and Jay – that rich Enlightenment philosophical base.  We need to think about this.  And while foundations – particularly the German foundations like the Adenauer and the Hanns Seidel foundations, etc. – are playing an important role in South Africa in strengthening our civic sense, American foundations should be promoting that philosophical underpinning which is absent in this country but so necessary to the functioning and survival of our constitution.  Secondly, while we have adopted the supremacy of the constitution, with its particular implications for the legislature, our constitutional thinking has been determined down the years by England, in which parliament is sovereign.  And while it is therefore not surprising that ANC spokespersons will quite regularly refer to parliament as the voice of the people to the relegation of the role of the judiciary in our polity, this is wrong and potentially distructive of democracy.

But these are things that in calmer times one needs to debate and promote because right now in an election year our political discourse is going to get tougher, more robust, and more confusing to ordinary South Africans, if not impossible for foreigners to understand.                                           

Dr Denis Worrall

Chairman,
Omega Investment Research
Cape Town, South Africa
www.omegainvest.co.za

Email: staceyf@omegainvest.co.za for all enquiries.
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We didn't have the ‘green’ thing back in my day…

In the line at the store, the cashier told the older woman that plastic bags weren't good for the environment. The woman apologized to her and explained, "We didn't have the green thing back in my day."

That's right, they didn't have the green thing in her day. Back then, they returned their milk bottles, Coke bottles and beer bottles to the store. The store sent them back to the plant to be washed and sterilized and refilled, using the same bottles over and over. So they really were recycled. But they didn't have the green thing back her day.

In her day, they walked up stairs, because they didn't have an escalator in every store and office building. They walked to the grocery store and didn't climb into a 300-horsepower vehicle every time they had to go two blocks. But she's right. They didn't have the green thing in her day.

Back then, they washed the baby's nappies because they didn't have the throw-away kind. They dried clothes on a line, not in an energy gobbling machine burning up 220 volts -- wind and solar power really did dry the clothes. Kids got hand-me-down clothes from their brothers or sisters, not always brand-new clothing. But that old lady is right, they didn't have the green thing back in her day.

Back then, they had one TV, or radio, in the house not a TV in every room. And the TV had a small screen the size of a pizza dish, not a screen the size of the state of Texas. In the kitchen, they blended and stirred by hand because they didn't have electric gizmos and gadgets to do everything for you. When they packaged a fragile item to send in the mail, they used scrunched-up newspaper to cushion it, not petroleum-based styrofoam or plastic bubble wrap.

Back then, they didn't fire up an engine and burn petrol just to cut the lawn. They used a push mower that ran on human power. They exercised by working so they didn't need to go to a health club to run on treadmills that operate on electricity. But she's right, they didn't have the green thing back then.

They drank from a drinking fountain when they were thirsty, instead of using a cup or a plastic bottle every time they had a drink of water. They refilled pens with ink, instead of buying a new pen, and they replaced the razor blades in a razor instead of throwing away the whole razor just because the blade got dull. But they didn't have the green thing back then.

Back then, people took the tram or bus, kids rode their bikes to school or rode the school bus, instead of turning their mums into a 24-hour taxi service with gas-guzzling, oversized SUVs. They had one electrical outlet in a room, not an entire bank of sockets to power a dozen appliances. And they didn't need a computerized gadget to receive a signal beamed from satellites 2,000 miles out in space in order to find the nearest pizza joint.

But that old lady is right. They didn't have the green thing back in her day…

 

A Very Positive View of Africa - with a caution

Below is a very interesting article by Denns Worrall of Insight Africa.  The last paragraph in particular expresses a concern that's been rumbling inside of me.  I would add that in addition to the Walmart affair, the loose talk of nationalisation and 'white thievery', there is also the fact that we remain at the southern tip of the continent, and most developed countries are in the north.  If we aspire to being the gateway to Africa, we must offer much much more than countries north of us.  Afterall what good is a gateway at the end of a cul-de-sac.


Other African countries are getting their act together and our window of opportunity is beginning to close.  We should not rest on our laurels and think that we will always be the shining light of Africa.



One is seldom so privileged as to have two business icons in a national economy talk on the same platform at the same function.  However, that happened last week at Omega’s conference on service providers to the SME sector.  The two keynoters were Raymond Ackerman, founder and chairman of Pick ‘n Pay, and Christo Wiese, chairman of Pepkor and other companies.  Wiese has many different interests, including agricultural and wine estates.
Both of course started their businesses, and both therefore were at one time “small businessmen”.  Raymond Ackerman was unceremoniously fired from his job at Greatermans and almost immediately bought three small shops in Cape Town called Pick ‘n Pay for R600,000.  This was in 1967 and at that time this was a considerable sum of money at the time.  Raymond’s first-hand account of how the money was raised is fascinating – given of course that a major hurdle for small businesspeople is raising the funding.  But he has gone on to build those three small shops into the biggest supermarket retailer in South Africa and in the process done a lot of good for the South African community and economy. 
Wiese similarly started business from a very small base in Upington in the Northern Cape.  He was fortunate to have Renier van Rooyen as his doyen and partner but has since then built up a very considerable business in a varied career and is today one of South Africa’s wealthiest men.  The similarity of their personal business philosophies was something that came across strongly in their inspirational presentations last week, and which I’m sure were appreciated by the audience.  However, what was also important is their very positive attitude toward Africa.
This positive attitude, incidentally, is confirmed by Ernst & Young’s 2011 Africa Attractiveness Survey.  It is called It’s time for Africa – a truly excellent publication superbly presented and with all the statistical information that any foreign investor would require.  The change in Africa’s business and economic fortunes surprises even somebody like myself who as a South African has spent most of his adult life in different way marketing Africa internationally.  Here are some of the key findings of this report.

• Africa is becoming increasingly attractive to international investors. Perceptions are becoming more distinctly positive over the longer-term horizon; in fact, the only emerging region that is clearly ahead of Africa in terms of investor perceptions is Asia.
• Business leaders are planning new developments and expanding existing ones, demonstrating why Africa's share of new global FDI projects has steadily improved over the past decade. Looking forward, capital investments are set to grow, reaching a forecasted US$150b in 2015.
• Africans themselves are leading the growth in investment across the continent, and display an overwhelming optimism about the growth prospects and investment potential of the continent. This optimism and self-belief is underlined by a 21% compound growth rate in Africans investing in other African countries from 2003 to 2010 (and in a diverse range of sectors).
• The Ernst & Young survey of international business leaders throws up an interesting difference between developed and emerging market investors, with emerging market investors generally more positive about Africa's attractiveness.
• Capital investment from emerging market investors grew particularly strongly (at 13% CAGR between 2003 and 2010), with high concentration in the extractive and manufacturing sectors.
• While investors from developed markets are relatively more cautious about Africa, they still represent the largest proportional investment, and are investing in a diverse range of sectors beyond resources.
• A key difference appears to be that emerging market investors regard Africa as critical to sustaining their own growth, whereas developed market investors see it as a potential future market that still needs to develop. In reality, both views represent only part of the total picture.

Whatever Raymond Ackerman and Christo Wiese and other leading South African businesspeople base their positive vision of Africa on, no doubt they accept these findings.  But as South African businesspeople they would also recognise that there has been a fundamental change in an important aspect of South Africa’s relationship to the rest of Africa and to international investors looking to invest in Africa.  Up to four or five years ago there was really only one access point to Sub-Saharan Africa – and that was South Africa, with Johannesburg being Africa’s Big Apple.  That has changed.  Part of the reason is that other African countries have developed and are developing at a comparable rate and are becoming equally attractive as investor entry-points to the continent. 
However, also part of the reason is South African politics and the uncertainties as far as foreign investment is concerned.  Typical, has been South Africa’s handling of the giant Walmart’s wish to acquire the controlling shareholding of South African Massmart.  Whereas elsewhere in Africa, were a deal on this scale to be possible, it would have been welcomed with open arms, in South Africa the matter was referred to the Competition Tribunal and as Business Day in an editorial after the Tribunal eventually approved the deal, wrote:  “It is, by any measure, a good end to a rotten affair, and local businesses and potential foreign investors, which have been watching with trepidation the public mauling of Walmart has been subjected to in the hearings, can take heart from it.  South Africa is still open for business.”  In other words, the Walmart case did not encourage foreign investors.  Neither does loose talk of nationalising mines and banks and seizing properties and accusations of white South Africans being thieves, etc.  The result is that South Africa has to work much harder in persuading the world that its access to Africa should be through Johannesburg.

Denis Worrall,
Chairman,
Omega Investment Research
Cape Town, South Africa
www.omegainvest.co.za